G20 Climate Risks Atlas: Impacts, policy, economics

October 28, 2021

On the eve of the G20 meeting in Italy, the CMCC Foundation – Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change released the G20 Climate Risks Atlas. Impacts, policy, economics, a series of Country Factsheets that summarises scientific projections of how climate impacts will play out in the world’s most industrialized countries over the coming decades.

The study, first of its kind, was developed with the support of the European Climate Foundation and with the scientific contribution of Enel Foundation, and it provides a comprehensive picture of the historical trends and future changes in climate across the G20, using available literature and data, and consolidating country-specific information within a homogenous and flexible structure. The information derives from modelling exercises, data analysis, the use of indicators and surveys of the most recent scientific literature, including published peer-reviewed papers, technical reports, and open access material from Horizon 2020 projects. Enel Foundation’s contribution focused on the development and application to G20 countries of indicators linked to energy transition dimensions and climate change more in general. 

The report finds that under the worst-case scenario, without urgent action to reduce carbon emissions, GDP losses due to climate damage in G20 countries increase each year, rising to at least 4% annually by 2050. This could reach over 8% by 2100, equivalent to twice the bloc’s economic losses from Covid-19. Conversely, the faster G20 countries adopt low-carbon policies, the less the climate impacts cascade and themore manageable they become. Limiting temperature rise to 2°C could see the cost of climate impacts in the G20 drop to just 0.1% of its total GDP by 2050 and 1.3% by 2100.

Based on the most advanced scientific knowledge available on the topic, the Atlas is easy to be consulted, designed with a mix of infographics, maps and short narrative descriptions in a simple language. Impacts, risks, and interactions with climate change that are expected by the middle and end of the century are assessed at the national level, under different degrees of warming and development models, with an in-depth analysis of key sectors of the G20 economies.

Download the countries factsheets here.