Enel Foundation, in collaboration with the Energy Center of Politecnico di Torino and MIT, has published the results of a study exploring possible electrification pathways in Italy up to 2050, targeted at implementing an energy paradigm based on the generation from renewables, and outlining its related benefits.
The study serves a double purpose. On one hand, it aims to build a prospective vision to 2022, 2030 and 2050, including scenarios on renewables’ penetration with the electrification potential in the residential, industrial and transportation sectors. On the other hand, it aims to estimate the benefits of electrification through the computation of KPIs on the economy, the environment and society.
Results show that further electrification in the Country will happen together with the development of renewables. The share of renewables in the energy supply in Italy will account for approximately 48% of the total supply in the matter of a couple of years, overcoming 85% by 2050. Changes will be substantial on the consumption side as well, with the share of consumed electricity reaching relevant levels in the industrial (42%), residential (53%) and transport (41%) sectors.
The benefits of such electrification include a sharp decrease in CO2 emissions through 2022, 2030 and 2050, with the expectation to cut them by more than half in thirty tears, with the most significant decrease happening in the last twenty. The consumption of primary energy will also be greatly affected, with a reduction of almost 50% by 2050, due to the higher efficiency levels associated with the penetration of the electric carrier.
Electrification is predicted to have a relevant impact on public and private finances as well, helping to cut public health expenditure and family households energy expenditure. More specifically, air quality improvement will reduce healthcare expenses, costs related with productivity losses and avoidance of premature deaths, totalling a cumulated amount of 692 bn € as public health savings by 2050. At the same time, thanks to greater energy efficiency, private energy bills will see a 17% decrease in the period.
Electrify Italy served also as building block for Electrify 2030, realized in collaboration with The European House Ambrosetti. In addition to the basic quantitative data, the two studies share the application and articulation of the concept of electric triangle, that is the wide electrification of the consumptions mixed with the generation of renewable sources and the use of electricity as the main energy carrier.