Economic and innovation trends in transport & energy
The analysis of trends in road transport has shown that electric consumption could grow to 8.6% of the total energy consumption in the road sector by 2050, representing the consumption segment for which, in the medium to long term, growth will be more intense. From 2030 to 2050, there is a predicted worldwide increase in electricity consumption related to transport by a factor of 10.
The study, developed in collaboration with CERTeT - Bocconi University, starts from the analysis of the evolution of the economic trends and the innovations expected in the e-mobility sector. The project holds the twofold objective of estimating the evolving dynamics of the e-vehicles market in Italy and to identify possible policy scenarios and measures that support these dynamics and maximize their impact.
The analysis of the trends in the industry allowed us to identify:
- technological and organizational game changers that act as drivers for the development of e-mobility;
- policy measures applied in other countries to support the same drivers;
- possible scenarios and policies to support the diffusion of electric mobility.
The identification and analysis of potential technological and organizational game changers has led to identify the three main factors affecting e-mobility demand - total cost of ownership, range anxiety and asymmetric information - and the drivers characterizing these factors - capacity and cost of batteries, recharging systems, V2G, car sharing, ride sharing and autonomous driving.
Three alternative development scenarios for e-mobility in Italy were elaborated for the study – Demand Oriented, Industry Oriented and Society Oriented - assuming different policy combinations and yielding different results in terms of electric car penetration of by 2020 and by 2035. The figure below highlights present policy achievements in the different scenarios.
The analysis is completed by highlighting policy elements aiming to improve:
a. Competitiveness of the national economic and productive system, linked to e- mobility, on the international markets
b. The economic, social and environmental sustainability of mobility with particular regard to urban and metropolitan areas.
To sum up, the study identifies five actions that could inspire a plan to support electric mobility in Italy:
- Promote a vision of sustainable mobility
- Elaborate measures and policies to support innovation along the e-vehicle value chain
- Support the development of charging networks
- Implement actions to stimulate demand
- Define timing for actions to be implemented aimed at maximizing the impacts of policies and measures.
External link to the book dedicated to the study can be found below (Italian).
O. Baccelli, R. Galdi, G. Grea- CERTeT Bocconi & Enel Foundation; preface by F. Staraceand D. Nardella